XRP Price Prediction: Potential 40% Drop Signaled by Bearish Pattern and Market Factors

Over the past week, there has been a significant decline in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, which has increased the downside risks for speculative assets like XRP.

XRP’s Bearish Triangle Pattern Signals Major Drop

The XRP market is exhibiting bearish indicators as a descending triangle pattern forms on its weekly chart. This technical formation suggests a challenging future for XRP, especially when combined with broader economic factors like potential U.S. tariffs.

Since its late 2024 rally, XRP has been forming a descending triangle with a horizontal support level and a downward-sloping resistance line. A breakdown could cause a drop equal to the triangle's height, and this pattern typically signals a bearish reversal.

XRP/USD Weekly Chart Analysis

The likelihood of a downward breakout increased as of March 28 as XRP tested the triangle's lower boundary. In the event that this breakdown takes place, XRP may drop 40% from its current price levels, reaching the $1.32 target by April.

Another warning has come from market veteran Peter Brandt, who forecasted a drop to $1.07 based on a classic head-and-shoulders pattern that was developing on the daily chart.

Conversely, XRP might move toward the upper trendline at $2.55 if it recovers from the support level. The bearish outlook might be dispelled and a rally toward the $3.35 high could be initiated with a clear breakout above this resistance.

Trump's Tariff Policy Puts Additional Pressure on XRP

President Donald Trump's planned 25% auto import tariffs, which are set to go into effect on April 3, are also putting pressure on the larger financial markets. These tariffs may raise prices for American consumers and manufacturers, exacerbating inflationary worries.

According to St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem, the tariffs could raise inflation by 1.2 percentage points. The February 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data already showed a 0.2% month-over-month increase. This comprises 0.7 percentage points from indirect effects and 0.5 percentage points from direct effects.

As of March 28, the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates to a target range of 400–425 basis points in June has decreased to 55.7%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This is a decrease from 58.4% a day ago and 67.3% a week ago.

XRP and other digital currencies that profit from a low-interest, risk-on environment would be impacted by a delayed rate cut, which would probably slow down the flow of capital into speculative assets.

In conclusion

A combination of technical and macroeconomic problems could lead to a significant price correction for XRP. Traders should closely monitor the descending triangle pattern and broader economic developments in order to forecast XRP's next move. Whether the asset recovers or depreciates will determine its trajectory in the coming weeks.